1st Annual Meeting
The SUSTAIN 1st Annual Meeting, where scientists and end users meet for the first time
1. Introduction of SUSTAIN
Goal: Give an overview of the project aims and how we intend to reach them.
Discuss the book to be produced by SUSTAIN.
10:00-10:30 Nils C. Stenseth (UiO), Bernt-Erik Sæther (NTNU) & Rolf A. Ims (UiT)
2. Presentation of strategic foresight
Goal: Help all participants to understand what it is and how it can work.
10:30-10:45 Sandra Hamel (WP6, UiT)
Strategic foresight: what, why, how, and the challenges with SUSTAIN
10:45-11:30 Samu Mäntyniemi
Experiences on participatory modelling using Bayesian inference
3. Short overview of case studies targeted by SUSTAIN: Researchers perspectives
Goal: Provide a quick overview of the case studies (i.e. the harvested species and the system components they are strongly linked to/affected by) the researchers have agreed to focus on within SUSTAIN, and the researchers perspectives on these systems.
Format: To be effective, management questions will be regrouped in specific case studies. We will present the key case studies that SUSTAIN will be focusing on. For simplicity, some of these case studies are on a targeted species, but we will use ecosystem approaches even in these specific cases. The researchers will present their perspectives, presenting the knowledge acquired, the data available and the questions and challenges that might be relevant to each of these harvested systems in the context of climate change.
11:50-12:00 Case 1: Semi-domestic reindeer
Audun Stien & Torkild Tveraa (NINA Tromsø)
12:00-12:10 Case 2: Svalbard terrestrial – reindeer, rock ptarmigan & arctic fox
Åshild Ø. Pedersen (NP), Eva Fuglei (NP), Brage B. Hansen (NTNU), Audun Stien (NINA Tromsø) & Rolf A. Ims (UiT)
12:10-12:20 Case 3: Rock and willow ptarmigan – Low Arctic and subarctic
John Andre Henden (UiT)
12:20-12:30 Case 4: Climate related invasive species and their impacts on native species and ecosystems (the case of red-listed Fennoscandian tundra species [lesser-white fronted goose & arctic fox] impacted by expanding red fox populations - other relevant cases may also be proposed and discussed)
Rolf A. Ims (UiT)
12:30-12:40 Case 5: Moose and boreal forest
Erling Solberg (NINA Trondheim)
12:40-12:50 Case 6: Mjøsa – Gudbrandsdalslågen system
Jannicke Moe (NIVA)
12:50-13:00 Case 7: Barents Sea system
Joël Durant (UiO)
4. Overview of the scientific knowledge/analytical capacities of SUSTAIN
Goal: Inform the end-users of what SUSTAIN can bring to the management of harvested ecosystems in the context of climate change.
Format: Each of the 5 WP will be presented in a context of what kind of knowledge SUSTAIN can provide, highlighting elements and methods that might be less known to other users. Basically, what people within SUSTAIN are able to do that might be relevant for other users, and why these things might be important for management. It will be shown, as concrete as possible, how each WPs relates to the case systems. Importantly, each presentation will be presented in a language/format that is accessible to all end-users.
14:00-14:50 (10 min each)
- WP1 – Øystein Langangen (UiO)
- WP2 – Aline Lee (NTNU)
- WP3 – Joël Durant (UiO)
- WP4 – Ivar Herfindal (NTNU)
- WP5 – John Andre Henden (UiT)
5. Presentation of the international partners
Goal: Give an overview of their scientific interests and what knowledge they contribute to SUSTAIN, keeping in mind that one important goal is to give an overview of what students and researchers within SUSTAIN could benefit from visiting their lab.
14:30-15:30 (10 min each)
- Olivier Gimenez
- Christian Damgaard
- John Fryxell
- Georgina Mace (presented by Nils C. Stenseth)
- Steve Redpath (presented by Rolf. A. Ims)
- Tim Coulson (presented by Nils C. Stenseth)
6. Working groups on each case study: End-users perspectives and negotiations
Goal: Reach common scientific objectives/management goals for each case study. Representatives from each end-users group will present their views on the subject and, together with researchers, will decide on common scientific objectives/management questions that are important for the future.
Format: The researchers, NGO’s, stakeholders, monitoring and management bodies concerned with each case study will be invited to take part in the negotiations. The negotiations on common management goals will take place separately for each case study and will be done in two steps. First, representatives from each end-users group will present their perspectives on the system, informing other users on the knowledge and data already acquired, their management needs and their views on current/future challenges for their harvested system in the context of climate change. (The researcher perspectives will not be presented again as they have been presented in section 3.) Second, these presentations will be the starting point for the negotiations, with the aim of finding common scientific objectives/management questions that are relevant for these harvested systems in the context of climate change. It is very likely that these objectives will not be solved for all case studies at this meeting, but this should be a very good start allowing these negotiations to be continued in the months following the meeting.
There will be three discussion sessions with three case studies running in parallel. Note that some case studies will span over two sessions. It is difficult to avoid overlap, but each SUSTAIN-node will try to have at least one representative for each case to be able to share the results of the discussions within each node. The summary of each case study has been provided by email. The international partners will act as moderators during the negotiations.
16:10-19:10 Group discussions on case studies (3h)
Case 2 – Svalbard terrestrial (Moderator: Olivier Gimenez)
Case 5 – Moose and boreal forest (Moderator: Christian F. Damgaard)
Case 7 – Barents sea (Moderator: John M. Fryxell)
08:00-10:00 Group discussions on case studies (2h)
Case 4 – Invasive species (Moderator: Christian F. Damgaard)
Case 1 (part 1) – Semi-domestic reindeer (Moderator: John M. Fryxell)
Case 6 (part 1) – Mjøsa lake (Moderator: Olivier Gimenez)
10:15-11:45 Group discussions on case studies (1h30)
Case 3 – Rock and willow ptarmigan (Moderator: Christian F. Damgaard)
Case 1 (part 2) – Semi-domestic reindeer (Moderator: John M. Fryxell)
Case 6 (part 2) – Mjøsa lake (Moderator: Olivier Gimenez)
7. Summary and general discussion on unknowns in data
Goal: Summarize the results of the discussions on the specific case studies.
Identify problems and solutions for unknowns relating to the three ecosystems we SUSTAIN will be working with. These unknowns are with regard to science (e.g. functioning of ecosystems and its response to future climate change) and management (e.g. which policy can be implemented in the future). While focusing on ‘known unknowns’, the meeting might also explore how we could address ‘unknown unknowns’, how ‘surprises’ can be quickly assimilated into science and management.
Format: We aim at integrating methodological and modelling aspects across the three ecosystems SUSTAIN is working with. Cook et al. (2014) identified 5 ways strategic foresight could contribute to improve environmental policies: ‘1) monitoring existing problems, 2) highlighting emerging threats, 3) identifying promising new opportunities, 4) testing the resilience of policies, and 5) defining a research agenda.’ In this meeting, we will focus on the first four points, and discuss what kind of data and models (statistical and mathematical) are available to answer these questions. It is in particular relevant to assess data quality and model resolution (spatial and temporal), both with respect to e.g. ecosystem functioning and implementation of management actions.
12:30-13:30 Nigel G. Yoccoz (UiT)
13:30-13:45 Nils C. Stenseth (UiO), Bernt-Erik Sæther (NTNU) & Rolf A. Ims (UiT)